Thursday, August 13, 2015

2015 PGA Championship Predictions/Preview

The 2015 PGA Championship begins this morning and it should create a exciting finish.  Here are some headlines that you should look out for:

Is Tiger Back?
I am one of the few people who have continued to stay with Tiger Woods through his struggles, in that I have believed that he can compete and I am rooting for him every time he goes out.  With Tiger coming off his best tournament of this season, posting three scores in the 60s, I fully expect Tiger to be in contention at Whistling Straits.  Tiger won't be in the lead at the 2015 PGA Championship, but he will be three or four shots back, enough to continue his confidence into his next tournament.  
Projected Score:
Tiger Woods: -8

Boom or Bust:
Jordan Spieth enters as the favorite to win the PGA Championship and for good reason.  Spieth has played in 25 tournaments in 2015.  He has won five of those tournaments and has finished outside of the Top-10 in only seven times in his twenty-five tournaments.  The reason he is my Boom or Bust player, is because in the two PGA Championships Spieth has competed in, he has missed the CUT in both.  Spieth has given us no reason to believe he will miss the Cut again, and has given us many reasons to believe that he won't miss the cut again.  He is still my boom or bust player for this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see him make the cut, but not be in contention entering Sundays round.  But as he as told us before, don't bet against him.
Projected Score:
Jordan Spieth: -12

A First Time for Everything:
I have watched Hideki Matsuyama and have been impressed with his game.  No golfer born in Japan has ever won the PGA Championship, or any major for that matter.  Hideki has played well in the bigger tournaments this year, finishing fifth, fifth, eighteenth, and eighteenth in the Masters, Memorial, US Open, and The Open Championship respectively. One thing I have noticed with Matsuyama is his one bad day.  He always seems to start off well, but can't finish it off.  I expect Hideki Matsuyama to be in contention heading into Sunday, and maybe even be in the lead, but he will stumble.  Japan's first major winner will have to wait until 2016.
Projected Score:
Hideki Matsuyama: -9

He's Baaaack:
Rory Mcilroy is coming back after suffering what sounded like a pretty big ankle injury, when he described it.  I feel like the hype is getting too-large.  I will keep this section short, because it is hard to say what going to happen with Rory.  He won't finish first, but he won't be completely out of it heading into the weekend.
Projected Score:
Rory Mcilroy: -10
7 Top-10's, 0 Championships:
Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, and Dustin Johnson have finished in the Top-10 in majors this year a combined seven times.  Yet none of the aforementioned have won a major championship ever.  Dustin fared well at Whistling Straits in 2010, and was going to be headed into the playoff, but grounding his club in the 'bunker' may have halted the "Dustin Era".  Jason Day finished well in 2010, only four strokes back, but he has yet to win a major.  He may have won it at the US Open had it not been for his sickness.  Rickie didn't place in the Top 50 in 2010, but this Rickie is a new Rickie.  Fowler has finished in the Top-10 in his past two starts.  He has fared well at the Masters and was doing well in The Open, until faltering down the stretch which has been his calling card.  Expect Rickie to be in the hunt, but not be able to finish it off.
Projected Score:
Dustin Johnson: -14
Jason Day: -12
Rickie Fowler: -11

El Nino:
Sergio Garcia has a knack for collapsing down the stretch in tournaments.  Garcia always puts himself into contention, but has yet to be able to win a major.  Garcia has finished in the Top-20 in every major this year, but has yet to win any tournament this year.  Expect more of the same at Whistling Straits.
Projected Score:
Sergio Garcia: -11

Sleepers/Busts/Typical:
Sleepers (Players to Watch out for):
Jim Furyk
Louis Oosthuizien
Martin Kaymer
Zach Johnson

Busts (Players to expect a worse outing from):
Phil Mickelson
Henrik Stenson

Typical (Expect a typical, Top-20):
Justin Rose
Adam Scott

So Close Yet So Far:
My final section will be about Bubba Watson. Bubba lost in a playoff in 2010.  His long game poses well on Par-5's.  Bubba has won two tournaments this year, including the Travelers.  Watson has finished second in his past two tournaments and appears to be playing his hottest golf of the year.  However in the past two major championships, Bubba Watson has missed the Cut.  This could hold him back, but Bubba knows this golf course and it fits well with his game, as shown in his near 2010 win.  Expect Bubba to come back this week.
Projected Score:
Bubba Watson: -14


Champion:
I am picking Bubba Watson to defeat Dustin Johnson in a playoff at this years 2015 PGA Championship.  Bubba's prior experience in major playoffs, not only at Whistling Straits, but at Augusta and Dustin's tough experience on Sundays in majors, Bubba will win his third major championship.  

Projected Leaderboard:
1. Bubba Watson -14*
2. Dustin Johnson -14
3. Jordan Spieth -12
3. Jason Day -12
5. Rickie Fowler -11
5. Sergio Garcia -11

Anything can happen in major championships and Boom player could Bust or a Bust player could Boom.  You'll have to watch to find out.